© 2005 Eugene S. Takle
Sea surface temperatures are widely known to influence tropical storm and
hurricane intensity. A large fraction of heat trapped near the Earth's surface
by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases goes into the global ocean
surface waters. Webster et al. (2005) evaluate the number of tropical cyclones
and tropical cyclone days, cyclone intensity, and duration over the past 35
years and find a large increase in the number and proportion of hurricanes that
reach categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale of 1-5. This change is
most pronounced in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans with
the least change in the North Atlantic Ocean. They find no long-term trend in
the global number of storms or number of storm days. All basins except the
North Atlantic show no increase in number of hurricanes or hurricane days, The
North Atlantic basin has increases in both that are statistically significant at
the 99% level.
Webster, P. J., G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H.-R. Chang, 2005: Changes in
tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment.
Science, 309, 1844-1846.
Reference