© 2003 Eugene S. Takle
Climate surprises are included in the category of climatic changes that have low probability but high impact. Current climate models are not able to simulate climate surprises. Alley et al (2003) state that large, abrupt and widespread changes in past climates have resulted from the Earth system being "forced" across thresholds. If such events were to occur today, they could have profound economic and ecological consequences. Alley et al assert that policy-makers should accelerate research on climate surprises and improve monitoring systems to detect climate changes that might be signs of climate surprises. Furthermore, actions should be taken to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies to climate surprises.
References
Alley, R. B., J. Marotzke, W. D. Nordhaus, J. T. Overpeck, D. M. Peteet, R. A. Pielke Jr., R. T. Pierrehumbert, P. B. Rhines, T. F. Stocker, L. D. Talley, and J. M. Wallace, 2003: Abrupt climate change. Science 299, 2005-2020.