A scientific statement about the rate of change of climate carries little credibility unless it is accompanied by some quantitative evaluation of the level of uncertainty that accompanies this statement. The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made an attempt to establish some measure of uncertainty in its projection of future climate change (Allen et al., 2001). Reilly et al. (2001) assert that the TAR does not go far enough in spelling out the level of scientific uncertainty and that until the scientific community does more quantitatively state the uncertainty, policy makers do not have sufficient evidence to make meaningful policies.
References
Allen, M., S. Raper, J. Mitchell, 2001: Uncertainty in the IPCC’s assessment report. Science, 293, 430-433.
Reilly, J., P. H. Stone, C. E. Forest, M. D. Webster, H. D. Jacoby, and R. G. Prinn, 2001: Uncertainty and climate change assessments. Science, 293, 430-433.