CHINA'S POPULATION GROWTH AND ITS ECONOMIC BOOM
I. POPULATION GROWTH
A. 1600 POPULATION = 200 MILLION
1850 POPULATION = 450 MILLION
QUESTION: WHY DOUBLING AT THIS TIME? 1950 POPULATION = 550 MILLION
QUESTION: WHY THE SLOW GROWTH AT THIS TIME? 1996 POPULATION = 1.2 BILLION
QUESTION: WHY A DOUBLING IN 45 YEARS?
INCREASE IS NOW 14 MILLION PER YEAR EQUAL TO A NEW
AUSTRALIA EVERY YEAR.
QUESTION: CAN CHINA TAKE CARE* OF THIS INCREASE?
CAN THE WORLD TAKE CARE* OF THIS INCREASE?
*CARE EQUALS FOOD, WATER, CLOTHES, HOUSING,
EDUCATION AND MEDICAL FACILITIES
B. WHAT HAS CHINA DONE ABOUT THEIR POPULATION GROWTH
RECORD?
NOTHING BETWEEN 1900 AND 1978.
SINCE 1978 HAVE PURSUED VARIOUS POLICIES AIMED AT
LIMITING THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN FAMILIES MAY HAVE
3 CHILDREN, ONE CHILD AND TWO CHILDREN PER
FAMILY PROGRAMS, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
SUCCESS--MORE SUCCESSFUL IN CITIES THAN
IN RURAL CHINA (WHERE 80% OF THE PEOPLE
LIVE)
II. ECONOMIC GROWTH
A. 1950-1978 APPROXIMATELY A 7 % GROWTH RATE PER YEAR
BUT AIMED AT HEAVY INDUSTRIALIZATION PROJECTS
UNDER STATE SPONSORSHIP AND A COLLECTIVIZED
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, LITTLE EMPHASIS ON CONSUMER
NEEDS OR GOODS
B. SINCE 1978 GROWTH RATE AVERAGING 10%+ PER YEAR
UNDER AN INCREASINGLY DECOLLECTIVIZED ECONOMIC
MODEL (EXCEPT FOR HEAVY INDUSTRY), ALLOWING
INDIVIDUAL FAMILY TO CONTRACT FOR LAND FOR
FARMING PURPOSES AND VILLAGES/COUNTIES/INDIVIDUALS TO
PURSUE MANUFACTURING.
CHIEF GROWTH IS IN DECOLLECTIVIZED SECTOR
ACCOUNTING FOR OVER 50% OF CHINA'S INDUSTRIAL
OUTPUT IN 1995--1/3 IN 1993 (STATE SECTOR GREW ONLY
2.2% IN 1994)
C. RESULT IS RISING PER CAPITA INCOME IN CHINA AND
HUGE DEMANDS FOR ENERGY, RAW MATERIALS, WATER,
AND LAND
NOW ESTIMATED THAT 10% OF CHINA'S POPULATION
IS "MIDDLE CLASS" THAT IS 100 MILLION PEOPLE
IT IS THIS CLASS THAT ATTRACTS THE ATTENTION
OF WESTERN FIRMS FROM COKE AND PEPSI, TO
MOTOROLA, VOLKSWAGEN, CHRYSLER, ATT AND AVON
AND IT IS THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY AND RAW MATERIALS
THAT ATTRACTS OTHERS (CATERPILLAR, BOEING, WESTINGHOUSE,
GE) AS CHINA BUILDS NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS, MASSIVE HYDROELECTRIC
DAMS, ETC.
THE ILLUSIVE CHINA MARKET OF THE l9TH AND FOR MOST OF
THE 20TH CENTURY IS BECOMING REALITY--
450 MILLION CHINESE CUSTOMERS WERE TOO POOR AND TOO
PROUD TO BUY WESTERN PRODUCTS IN 1850 OR EVEN 1950;
NOW THE POTENTIAL OF REACHING 100 MILLION (AND RISING)
CUSTOMERS WITH SPARE CHANGE DRIVES THE NON-CHINESE AND
OVERSEAS CHINESE TO SEEK ACCESS TO THIS MARKET--NEVER MIND
HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS, INFRINGEMENT OF COPYRIGHT, OR
BULLYING ON THE HIGH SEAS.
III. IMPACT OF THIS ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC JUGGERNAUT
A. DEMAND FOR ENERGY BY BOOMING ENERGY IS RUNNING AN
ESTIMATED 25-30% BEHIND DEMAND
HENCE:
-MORE COAL FIRED GENERATION PLANTS WITH
FEW IF ANY CLEANING TECHNOLOGIES (AND CHINA'S
COAL IS HIGH SULPHUR CONTENT) ARE PLANNED
TO PROVIDE 75~ OF CHINA'S ENERGY NEEDS
DUE TO VAST COAL RESERVES
-BUILDING MORE NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS TO
PROVIDE BY 2020 6-7%0F TOTAL ELECTRICITY
SUPPLY
-BUILDING MASSIVE HYDROELECTRIC DAMS
e.g. THREE GORGES DAM ON YANGTZE RIVER
FOR AN ESTIMATED COST OF $30 BILLION.
DISPLACEMENT OF 1 MILLION CHINESE TO SAY
NOTHING OF FLORA AND FAUNA.
B. DEMAND BY POPULATION WITH RISING INCOME
FOR BETTER FOOD, HOUSING, CLOTHING, EDUCATION
AND MEDICAL CARE AS WELL AS CONSUMER PRODUCTS
(e. g. AUTOMOBILES, COSMETICS, TOBACCO)
1. ALL THESE DEMANDS REQUIRE LARGER ENERGY SOURCES
TO SUPPLY THE MEANS TO MAKE THE PRODUCTS
DESIRED
FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES: EACH AMERICAN AT PRESENT
USES THE SAME AMOUNT OF ENERGY AS 3 JAPANESE 38 INDIANS
OR 531 ETHIOPIANS. IN THE WORDS OF MAO ZE-TUNG
"CAN THE WORLD AFFORD ANOTHER UNITED STATES?"
2. EXAMPLE: NEED FOR FOOD AND CHANGING FOOD DEMANDS
ARE THESE ONLY A CHINESE PROBLEM OR ALSO
CAN CHINA FEED THEMSELF IN THE 21ST CENTURY?
(Lester Brown, "Who Will Feed China?" World Watch, Sept/
Oct. 1994 10-19; "Update" World Watch, Sept/Oct. 1995
p 38)
I. Shrinking Cropland (initially only 7% of total area of country)
A. Rapid industrialization, housing, highway and railroad
construction
B. Diversion of irrigation water to non-farm use
l. well water
2. drying up of aquifers (water table under Beijing
sunk from 5 meters below surface to 50 meters
below, 1950 to 1993)
3. Chinese Minister of Water Resources (1993) Niu
Maosheng:
"in rural areas, over 82 million people find it
difficult to procure water. In urban areas, the
shortages are even worse. More than 300 Chinese
cities are short of water and 100 of them are very
short."
C. Increasing demand for grain
l. population increase by 490 million by 2030
to 1.6 billion
2. rising standard of living, due to economic boom
in part facilitated by town-village enterprises
--demand for grain to produce necessary beef, pork,
poultry, fish, eggs, beer
II. Raise Land Productivity? Difficult perhaps impossible.
A. China faces a 1% drop in grain production/year (as did
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan since 1960, 1977 and 1977
respectively)
B. Plateauing of rice production/ha (5 tons in Japan and
4 tons in South Korea, Taiwan, and China)
C. Technology fix in works? No
Chapman/Barker (Cornell) "the genetic yield potential
of rice has not been increased significantly since
release of high yielding varieties in 1966"
Donald Duvick (Pioneer Hi-Bred): No breakthroughs are
in sight. Biotechnology, while essential to progress
will not produce sharp upward swing in yield potential
except for isolated crops in certain situations."
D. Fertilizer?
l. use plateaued 1993 at 29 million tons due to
diminishing returns
2. need to develop new cereal crops capable of
responding to heavier fertilizer use
III. Environmental Impacts--all negative?
A. Soil erosion
B. Water logging/salting
C. Air pollution/acid rain
D. Global Warming
IV. Prospects
A. Grain production will fall 1%/year; population will rise;
grain cropland will fall
B. Resulting deficits will be huge
l. 1990 China imported 6 million tons (produced 326
million consumed 335 million tons)
2. with projected 20% loss of cropland only, will result
in a 216 million ton shortfall in 2030 (in excess
of the 200 million tons on export market in 1993)
C. Rising standard living requires more grain
l. if per capita consumption climbs modestly from under
300 kg/person to 350 kg/person--demand rises to 568 million
tons, import deficit of 305 million tons (56% of total grain
demand compared with 1993 levels of 76% for Japan, SKorea, Taiwan--
Japan imported 28 million tons) 2. if rises to 400 kg/person
(current level in Taiwan, 1/2 the US level), resulting in
importing 641 million tons and an import deficit of 378 million
tons
Professor Zhou Guangzhao (head of Chinese Academy of Sciences:
"if the nation continues to squander... then China will
have to import 400 million tons of grain from world market.
And I am afraid in that case, the entire grain output of
the US could not meet China's needs."
D. China could buy grain, with the foreign reserves it
now possesses (surplus with US was $23 billion in 1993)
l. at current $150/ton could buy 200-300 million tons
2. cut into purchases of capital goods needs to sustain
economic boom, which is the premise of the rising
demand for improved living standards, loss of
cropland and environmental pollution.
E. Who will supply? No one.
l. since 1980 average grain exports around 200 million
tons, one-half from US
2. US itself anticipates increase of 95 million by 2030
plus loss of cropland and irrigation water
3. 100 other countries already on US export list and
their demands expected to rise e.g.
Egypt 1990 8 million tons, 2030 21 million tons
Mexico 1990 6 million tons, 2030 19 million tons
Africa anticipates needing 250 millions tons by 2030
Iran, Ethiopia, Nigeria all face deficit years
F. A MORE OPTIMISTIC ASSESSMENT (Vaclav Smil "Is There
Enough Chinese Food?" New York Review 2/1/96 32-34
reviewing Lester Brown's Who Will Feed China which is
now a book)
1. UNDERESTIMATION OF CHINA'S TOTAL CULTIVATED AREA
-OFFICIALLY 237 MILLION ACRES; LANDSTAT SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE 371 MILLION ACRES
2. CHINA CAN INTENSIFY INPUTS:
-WATER
NOW PAY ONLY 5-20% OF REAL COST; REALISTIC
PRICES SHOULD IMPROVE EFFICIENCY
-MATCH CROPS WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE: SORGHUM
FOR CORN AS ANIMAL FEED; SUNFLOWERS FOR
SOYBEANS
-IRRIGATE EVERY OTHER FURROW--SAVES 1/3 OF
WATER
-MICROELECTRIC SENSORS, CENTER PIVOT MACHINES
-SEEPAGE AND EVAPORATION ACCOUNTS FOR LOSS OF
50-60% OF IRRIGATION WATER
-FERTILIZATION
-GAINS OF 25-30% OVER A 20 YEAR PERIOD
POSSIBLE THROUGH IMPROVED EFFICIENCIES
(SHUT DOWN SMALL PLANTS MAKING AMMONIUM
BICARBONATE--REPLACE WITH UREA PLANTS)
-WASTE
-15% OF CROP YIELD LOST/YEAR IN HARVEST
THRESHING, DRYING STORAGE, TRANSPORT, LOSSES
IN MESSHALLS
-CHANGING DIET TO MORE PORK + DIFFUSION OF
DIARY PRODUCTS
-IN CHINA THE AVERAGE SUPPLY OF MORE THAN 2700
KILOCALORIES PER DAY/CAPITA IS SUFFICIENT
(IN WEST AVERAGE IS 3500 BUT BEST SURVEYS
OF ACTUAL FOOD CONSUMPTION SHOW DAILY MEAN
(WEIGHTED FOR AGE/SEX) OF 2100-2200
KILOCALORIES TO BE ADEQUATE (Smil)
Issue: how to bridge projected gap between China's rising food
needs and inability of rest of the world to supply those
needs; when China turns to world market on an on-going basis--
its food scarcity due to shortages of cropland and water will
be world's shortages. Can China implement changes suggested
under F and eliminate "bad policies" as Smil suggests? It will
take strong leadership at the top to implement such
policies and right now China is a government (and perhaps a system)
in transition. The chances of implementation appear slim.
Examine the projections for the year 2030 from all sources and
write-up your own scenario as to China's and the world's
situation regarding availability of food and population
density. What is the connection to potential global warming
(or do you only see a future of global warring over water and
food)?
(also see "The Food Crisis that Isn't--and One That Is"
in The Economist, 11-25-95, p 41)
ISSUE OF CHINA'S EFFORTS TO MODERNIZE VIA INDUSTRIALIZATION
(DECENTRALIZATION, FREE MARKETS, RURAL INDUSTRIALIZATION,
LACK OF RULES, GUIDELINES, LAWS) VS. PRESERVATION OF CHINA'S
AND THE WORLD'S ENVIRONMENT WITH A CASE STUDY OF THE
AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY
I. THE GENERAL PROBLEM: CHINA AND THE ENVIRONMENT--PROBLEMS,
CAUSES, AND RESPONSES
A. PROBLEMS:
1. SOIL DETERIORATION: EROSION, ALKANIZATION,
SALINIZATION, DESERTIFICATION
2. VEGETATION DESTRUCTION, ESPECIALLY FORESTS AND
GRASSLANDS
3. AIR POLLUTION: DEMAND FOR ENERGY/PLANS FOR PRIVATE
VEHICLES (see case study below)
4. DECLINING URBAN AND RURAL ENVIRONMENTS
5. WASTE DISPOSAL PROBLEMS
B. CAUSES
1. DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURE ON LIMITED ARABLE LAND: MORE
FOOD, HOUSING, CLOTHING, LUMBER, WATER, LAND
REQUIREMENTS
2. PERSISTENT DRIVES FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH SINCE 1950,
UNREGULATED
3. FAMILY CONTRACT SYSTEM SINCE 1978 PROMOTES EMPHASIS ON
CASH CROP, DECLINE OF TRADITIONAL RECYCLING
APPROACH, INCREASING RELIANCE ON CHEMICALS
(FERTILIZERS/PESTICIDES)
4. USE OF COAL AS PRIMARY SOURCE (76%) OF ENERGY: HIGH
SULPHUR AND ASH CONTENT, 15% WASHED: RESULTS--
ACID RAIN; MAJOR CITIES SUFFER HIGH INCIDENCE OF
SUSPENDED PARTICLES AND NOXIOUS GASES
--EMPHYSEMA (ALONG WITH STROKE) IS COMMONEST CAUSE
OF DEATH IN MIDDLE AGED CHINESE
5. STATE CONTROL OF PRICING OF KEY INGREDIENTS: WATER,
LUMBER, COAL AND OIL ALL PRICED UNDER COST
6. TOWN VILLAGE ENTERPRISE SYSTEM: PRODUCES 40% OF GNP
IN 1992, EXPANDED AT ANNUAL RATE OF 30% A RUNAWAY
LOCOMOTIVE WITHIN CHINA?
-NO RULES, LAWS OR REGULATIONS FOLLOWED
7. SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES (SEZs) DEVELOPED TO 1986 IN
UNREGULATED MANNER, THUS ATTRACTED RECOGNIZED
POLLUTERS: SPONGE, GLUE, FOOD PROCESSING, TANNING,
DYEING, PLASTIC MOULDING FIRMS
C. RESPONSES
1. GOVERNMENT LAWS, REGULATIONS, POLICIES, TRAINING;
INVOLVEMENT IN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES; CREATING
ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES; SCIENTIFIC ASSOCIATIONS; NEW
JOURNALS, ALL SINCE 1979 AND UNMATCHED IN ANY OTHER
ASIAN COUNTRY OR DEVELOPING NATIONS
2. ECO-FARMING SINCE 1982
U.N. RECOGNIZED FOUR VILLAGES IN CHINA IN 1987,
1988, 1990 AND 1991 FOR ACHIEVEMENTS IN ECO-FARMING
3. STRICTER LAWS IN SEZs
4. SPONTANEOUS POPULAR RESPONSES TO LOCAL ENVIRONMENTAL
PROBLEMS
5. SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY RAISES CONCERN FOR DETERIORATING
ENVIRONMENT
6. ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION PROGRAMS
7. OUTSIDE FINANCIAL AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, e.g.
U.N. AND WORLD BANK
D. REALITIES
1. LACK OF ENFORCEMENT OF LEGAL PROVISIONS
2. RELIANCE ON LOCAL AND PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS FOR
REVENUE GENERATED BY TOWN VILLAGE ENTERPRISES,
A PRIMARY POLLUTION SOURCE, THUS A RELUCTANCE TO
REGULATE, CHECK OR POLICE
3. POOR TRAINING AND UNDERSTAFFING OF ENVIRONMENTAL
AGENCIES
4. LACK OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSCIOUSNESS ON PART OF
MANAGERS AND THE PUBLIC AT LARGE
5. OVERALL STRATEGY BEHIND EMPHASIS ON TOWN VILLAGE
ENTERPRISES
6. INSUFFICIENT INVESTMENT ON THE PART OF THE STATE,
PROVINCIAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS IN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONTROL
II A CASE STUDY: BUILDING AN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY, AN
ANACHRONISM?
A. PRESENT TRENDS IN MOTOR VEHICLE USE ARE NON-SUSTAINABLE:
1. CONTINUED GROWTH IN EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES FROM
MOTOR VEHICLES CONTINUES TO PLACE THE EARTH'S CLIMATE
IN GREATER JEOPARDY i.e. GLOBAL WARMING
MOTOR VEHICLES ARE MAJOR DIRECT AND INDIRECT SOURCES
OF GREENHOUSE GASES WITH CARBON DIOXIDE BEING THE
LARGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INCREASED WARMING WITH MOTOR
VEHICLES ACCOUNTING FOR 15% OF GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS
BETWEEN 1971 AND 1991 CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS
GREW BY ABOUT 17 MILLION TONS PER YEAR
(FROM 518 MILLION METRIC TONS OF CARBON TO
900 MILLION METRIC TONS)
ESTIMATED THAT IF GLOBAL FLEET CONTINUES TO GROW
FOLLOWING RECENT TRENDS, AND IF FUEL CONSUMED PER
VEHICLE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AT 1.5%/YEAR TOTAL VEHICLE
CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS COULD INCREASE BY AN ADDITIONAL
20 TO 50% (RELATIVE TO 1987) BY 2010.
INCREASES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD MAKE INT'L
EFFORTS TO CONTROL GLOBAL WARMING DIFFICULT
JUST TO STABILIZE ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE
CONCENTRATIONS AT PRESENT LEVELS REQUIRES A REDUCTION
IN EMISSIONS OF 60 TO 80% BELOW TODAY'S LEVELS (un intergovtl
panel on climate change ipcc. cambridge univ. press. 1992)
TREND IS IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION WITH SOME PREDICTIONS OF EVEN
HIGHER EMISSIONS, IN THE RANGE OF 30-40% GREATER IN 2010 THAN
IN 1990 (INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY IEA 1995, 49) IEA FORECASTS
A 55 TO 62% INCREASE IN WORLDWIDE TRANSPORT CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS
BY THE YEAR 2010 RELATIVE TO 1990--ALL THIS ENERGY DERIVED FROM OIL.
THUS IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE THE EARTH'S CLIMATE WILL BE PLACED
IN JEOPARDY..REQUIRING A FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
--IF GOING TO EFFECTIVELY ADDRESS PROBLEM OF GLOBAL WARMING
2. GLOBAL OIL RESERVES ARE FINITE, REQUIRING A MAJOR
SHIFT FROM OIL TO OTHER ENERGY SOURCES WILL HAVE TO
BEGIN SOON---i.e BY YEAR 2010
WHEN, NOT IF, THIS HAPPENS MAJOR NEW ENERGY SOURCES WILL
HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED SINCE OIL IS USED TO MEET 40% OF
OF GLOBAL (COMMERCIAL) ENERGY NEEDS. (See, "Mideast Oil
Forever?" Atlantic Monthly, April 1996).
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR JAPAN AND USA--THE PRINCIPAL
DEVELOPERS AND MANUFACTURERS OF MOTOR VEHICLES
SINCE ALMOST ALL ARE POWERED BY OIL PRODUCTS
MOTOR VEHICLES ACCOUNT FOR ABOUT 1/3 OF GLOBAL
OIL USE, 40% OF OIL USE IN THE OECD COUNTRIES,
AND ABOUT HALF OF OIL USE IN THE USA
ESTIMATED THAT WORLD HAS CONSUMED AT LEAST 30%
OF THE CRUDE OIL THAT WILL EVER BE RECOVERED
UNLESS GLOBAL DEMAND FOR OIL GROWS MUCH MORE
SLOWLY THAN ANTICIPATED, PRODUCTION WILL START
DECLINING IN A TIME PERIOD MEASURED IN DECADES
NOT CENTURIES
former Shell CEO argued that oil production is
projected to continue to grow in the near term
at a rate of about 1%/yr to a peak of about 75 million
barrels/day around year 2010 (Dec 1989)
ONLY BRIGHT SIGN IN THIS DECLINING OIL RESERVES
SAGA--IS THAT RECENTLY GEOCHEMISTS AT WOODS HOLE
OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTE BELIEVE THAT OIL IS MOVING
FROM GREAT DEPTHS IN THE EARTH TO RESERVOIRS CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE. UNPROVEN AT THE MOMENT BUT USING
THE EXAMPLE OF A RESERVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
(ONE OF THE WORLD'S MOST PRODUCTIVE OIL SOURCES
YIELDING MORE THAN 1 BILLION BARRELS OR 42 MILLION
GALLONS AND STILL GOING STRONG--) IN WHICH THE
RESERVES ARE DECLINING MUCH SLOWER THAN EXPERTS
PREDICTED ON BASIS OF ITS PRODUCTION RATE
(PENNZOIL IS PUMPING OIL WHICH AT BEGINNING HAD
THE SIGNATURE OF BEING FORMED IN THE PLEISTOCENE EPOCH,
LESS THAN 2 MILLION YEARS AGO, OIL NOW BEING RECOVERED
HAS THE SIGNATURE OF OIL OF THE JURASSIC PERIOD, WHICH
ENDED MORE THAN 150 MILLION YEARS AGO-- THUS OLDER OIL
IS BURNING UPWARDS
(NY times, 9/26/95, B5,8)
3. CONTINUED GROWTH IN AIR POLLUTION EMISSIONS--MUCH FROM
MOTOR VEHICLES--WILL MAKE LIFE INTOLERABLE IN THE
WORLD'S MAJOR CITIES i.e. AIR POLLUTION
-MOTOR VEHICLES CONSTITUTE THE PRINCIPAL SOURCE OF AIR]
POLLUTION IN MAJOR CITIES: WORLD BANK ESTIMATES THAT
THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR ACCOUNTS FOR THE GREAT BULK OF
CO EMISSIONS (58-85% OF EMISSIONS IN THE OECD COUNTRIES,
OVER 60% IN EASTERN EUROPE, OVER 90% IN THE MIDDLE EAST,
AND 50-60% IN ASIA
-IN THE U.S. VEHICLE RELATED AIR POLLUTION PROBLEMS PERSIST
DESPITE MORE THAN 25 YEARS OF REGULATION AIMED AT PRODUCING
CLEANER VEHICLES.
-DESPITE BEST REGULATIONS AND PARTICIPATION BY OWNERS THE
GROWTH IN THE NUMBER OF VEHICLES AND GROWTH IN NUMBER OF
PERSONS EXPOSED TO POLLUTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE. IN 1970
246 MILLION VEHICLES 1990 583 MILLION WITH A COMMENSURATE
GROWTH IN TRAVEL AND FUEL USE. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE
THERE COULD BE WELL OVER A BILLION VEHICLES ON THE ROAD BY 2010.
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES THUS THE
CONTINUED GROWTH IN NUMBER OF SOURCES, COMBINED WITH THE LESS
THAN ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS FROM EMISSION CONTROLS--HAS
OVERWHELMED MUCH OF THE TECHNOLOGICAL EFFORTS OF THE PAST
25 YEARS AIMED AT REDUCING MOTOR VEHICLE AIR POLLUTION
4. WITHOUT IMPROVEMENTS IN TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT AND NEW
FORMS OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT, VEHICLE CONGESTION AROUND
THE WORLD WILL CONTINUE TO GROW--LEADING TO MASSIVE
GRIDLOCK IN MANY METROPOLITAN AREAS
5. TECHNOLOGICAL RESPONSES OFFSETTING THESE LINKED
THREATS:
a. CHANGING ENERGY SOURCES WILL CONTROL AIR
POLLUTION AND GREENHOUSE GASES
ALTERNATIVE FUELS:
METHANOL: M85 (85% METHANOL/15% GASOLINE) BUT OFFERS
LITTLE GREENHOUSE WARMING BENEFIT IF DERIVED FROM FOSSIL FUELS
COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS (CNG) WOULD DEFINITELY REDUCE OZONE
CONCENTRATIONS, 15% REDUCTION OF OVERALL GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS IN LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES, 5% IN HEAVY DUTY DIESEL
POWERED VEHICLES
ETHANOL: WOULD INCREASE OZONE CONCENTRATIONS BY 6%
"the addition of ethanol to gasoline is generally counterproductive
with respect to ozone formation.."
ALCOHOL FUELS FROM OTHER BIOMASS SOURCES ETHANOL AND METHANOL
CAN BE PRODUCED FROM OTHER SOURCES OF BIOMASS (PAPER,
SOLID WASTE, AG AND FORESTRY RESIDUES AND WASTES)
EACH OF THESE SOURCES HAS SOME MERIT, BUT SMALL--
ALL WOULD REDUCE CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS RELATIVE TO
CONVENTIONAL GASOLINE, WOULD REDUCE OZONE CONCENTRATIONS
IMPACT ON GLOBAL WARMING IS INSIGNIFICANT
ZERO EMISSION VEHICLES: ELECTRIC AND HYDROGEN CARS
ESTIMATED THAT IN NE USA ELECTRIC VEHICLES WOULD REDUCE
CARBON MONOXIDE AND ORGANIC COMPOUND EMISSIONS BY 99% AND
NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS BY 70%--ASSUMING THE
POWER PLANTS ARE REASONABLY CLEAN. AND CUT THE EMISSIONS
OF TOXIC SUBSTANCES (BENZENE) BY ABOUT 99%. WOULD
HOWEVER BE INCREASED EMISSIONS OF SULFUR DIOXIDE--THUS ACID
PRECIPITATION IF HIGH SULFUR EMISSIONS RESULTED FROM
GENERATION OF ELECTRICITY (BUT NOT IF SWITCH TO WIND
TURBINES, PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS, OR NUCLEAR PLANTS)
HYDROGEN POWER: INTEREST IN THIS TECHNOLOGY HIGH IN
EUROPE AND JAPAN ADVANTAGES NO CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS,
LONGER RANGE, FAST REFUELING, FACE LACK OF SUPPORTING
INFRASTRUCTURE BUT WOULD BE USEFUL IN REDUCING OIL IMPORTS,
ALLEVIATING TRADE DEFICITS AND CUT AIR POLLUTION AND GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS
STIMULATED BY CALIFORNIA LAWS (2% OF NEW LIGHT DUTY
VEHICLES SOLD IN STATE MUST HAVE ZERO EMISSIONS
BY 1998 AND 10% BY 2003--CAN ONLY BE MET BY ELECTRIC
VEHICLES--RECENTLY MODIFIED)
b. OPTIONS APPEARING THAT WILL PROVIDE MORE
ATTRACTIVE AND AFFORDABLE FORMS OF TRANSPORT--
ESPECIALLY FOR THE VERY YOUNG, ELDERLY, AND
PHYSICALLY IMPAIRED.
PERSONAL RAPID TRANSIT (PRT) COULD OVERCOME ALL
PROBLEMS CURRENTLY FACING PUBLIC TRANSPORT SYSTEMS
U OF MINNESOTA HAS DEVELOPED SUCH A SYSTEM OVER
LAST 20 YEARS, AND A WORKING SYSTEM IS NOW BEING
ENGINEERED BY RAYTHEON COMPANY, WITH A TEST VERSION
TO RUN IN MARLBOROUGH, MA IN 1996, AND COMMERCIAL
SYSTEM TO BE CONSTRUCTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER IN
ROSEMONT, IL, NEAR O'HARE INTL AIRPORT
SYSTEM: SMALL, DEDICATED, COMPUTER OPERATED ELECTRIC
VEHICLES CARRYING 3-4 SEATED PASSENGERS POWERED BY ELECTRIC
MOTORS, RIDE ON OWN ELEVATED GUIDEWAY, ALLOWING VEHICLE
TO TRAVEL AT HIGH SPEEDS SAFELY. DUE TO INDIVIDUAL CAR MODEL,
SYSTEM COSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN THAT OF A HEAVY
RAIL SUBWAY--ALLOWING FOR SERVICES TO LOWER POPULATION DENSITY
(IDEALLY A PRT STATION WITHIN A 10 MINUTE WALK OF ANY POINT
IN A METROPOLITAN AREA). NONSTOP TRIPS (AS STATIONS ARE OFF
MAIN LINES, NO NEED TO CHANGE FROM ONE TO ANOTHER VEHICLE.
A SINGLE LINE OF GUIDEWAY WILL CARRY THE EQUIVALENT TRAFFIC
OF 4 LANES OF A MAJOR EXPRESSWAY.
RAYTHEON SYSTEM HAS REDUNDANT SAFETY FEATURES:
TWO ELECTRIC MOTORS/VEHICLE, TWO ON BOARD
COMPUTERS, BACK UP POWER SYSTEMS, EMERGENCY
COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS
B. BUT CHINA WANTS TO BUILD FOSSIL FUELED AUTOS ANYWAY
1. CHINA'S LEADERS WHAT TO DOUBLE THE ANNUAL PRODUCTION
TO 3 MILLION VEHICLES--1.5 MILLION OF THEM AUTOS
BY 2000--WITH INDIVIDUAL CONSUMERS THE PRIMARY
TARGET (SHIFTING FROM MINI-VANS)
AUTO INDUSTRY IS ECONOMICALLY SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE IT
IS A CAPITAL INTENSIVE AND HIGH VALUE ADDED INDUSTRY
CAPABLE OF GENERATING A HIGH RATE OF RETURN ON
INVESTMENT. THE EXTENSIVE MULTIPLIER EFFECTS OF
THIS INDUSTRY CREATED 11.3 % OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN
JAPAN IN 1989, AND 9.2% EMPLOYMENT IN CHINA
AMERICAN, EUROPEAN AND JAPANESE FIRMS ARE COMPETING
TO PARTICIPATE IN WHAT IS SEEN AS THE NEXT (AND LAST?)
BIG MARKET
"China offers the greatest potential market in the world
and that's why everyone is coming" Nissan's contact person
in China. Total vehicle production could reach 1.5 million
this year (but only 700,000 out of 7 million are private),
but auto production growing at an annual rate of 17% since
1979, in 1993 production jumped 22.8% outpacing overall economic
growth of 13%, and supply is not keeping up with demand. China
estimates that annual demand will jump from an estimated
1.2-1.5 million in 2005 to 3 million in 2010; or an estimated
300 million potential car owners output value is estimated at
$49 billion with car makers expected to make a combined profit
of more than $123 billion, while paying taxes of $9.4 billion,
creating 15 million jobs. Currently for every 1000 Chinese there
are 1.2 sedan cars, while world average is 90.9
(china daily, 11/14/94, 2)
LI PENG, THE PREMIER, HAS FOCUSED ON THE AUTO INDUSTRY AS
ONE OF FOUR HEAVY INDUSTRIES WHOSE GROWTH CAN HELP SUSTAIN THE
COUNTRY'S RAPID ECONOMIC EXPANSION OVER NEXT TWO DECADES (other
three are telecommunications, computers, and petrochemicals)
LEADERS SEE THIS AS A MEANS TO CREATE A GIANT INTERNAL CONSUMER
MARKET TO MOVE TO NEXT STAGE OF MATERIALS--ESP. SINCE NEW LEADERS
WILL NEED SUSTAINED ECONOMIC GROWTH TO LEGITIMATE THEMSELVES AS
DELIVERERS OF PROSPERITY TO THE MASSES
ALSO CONSOLIDATING THE 120 FIRMS MAKING VEHICLES IN CHINA
INTO ABOUT 8, MANY WITH JOINT-VENTURE CONNECTIONS WITH JAPANESE,
EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN FIRMS--WITH THE ADVANTAGE TO THE FIRST
TWO SINCE HAVE BEEN IN ASIA AND CHINA LONGER
2. PROBLEM:
THE FOCUS IS ON PRODUCTION OF THE VEHICLES NOT
ON SUSTAINABILITY OF SUCH COMMODITIES IN CHINA
DUE LACK OF OIL RESOURCES AVAILABLE TO DIVERT
INTO SUCH AN INDUSTRY AND LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE
(ROADS, GAS STATIONS, TIRES, ETC)
SOME CHINESE SEE THIS
--"the problem is, they don't think about traffic or people's lives,
they just think about production, production, production"
Ding Jingping, an industrial economist at the Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences, "this is one of the aspects of the centrally
planned economy" (NY times, 9/22/94)
--China Academy of Sciences argues that China is
"too crowded to encourage people to own cars"
and urges a development strategy that emphasizes
more efficient use of land, water, energy and
other resources--shortages of each make the
family car impractical--rather China should
invest in convenient and comprehensive public
transportation networks (wsj 6/20/95)
SET ASIDE ALL ARGUMENTS REGARDING TRAFFIC, POLLUTION, AND
MASS TRANSIT--EVEN WITH OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE THAT CHINESE
CITIES ARE ALREADY CHOKING ON TRAFFIC, AIR POLLUTION, THAT
PRECIOUS FARMLAND IS DISAPPEARING, AND DISREGARD THE NEED FOR
HIGHWAYS, CONSIDER THE FACT THAT CHINA BECAME A NET OIL IMPORTER
IN 1993 AFTER NORTHERN FIELDS FAILED TO KEEP PACE WITH DEMAND
AND SOUTH CHINA FIELDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO PRODUCE RESULTS
"40% of US energy consumption goes into private cars--and US
is importing 1/2 its crude oil. If the Chinese try to model
themselves on US, Japan or SKorea--there is simply not enough
crude oil on planet for them to import and thus such a pursuit
will speed up the arrival of the third oil crisis." Vaclav Smil
"the automobile cannot be extended to 1.2 billion Chinese-or even
100-200 million. This is an insane route--there is not a single
Chinese city that does not suffer from qridlock already."
Quite recently 10-11-95 a FRENCH OIL COMPANY PULLED OUT OF
CHINA'S REFINERY PLAN...A HEAVY BLOW TO CHINA'S REFINING
INDUSTRY, ALREADY RUNNING AT NEAR CAPACITY BUT UNABLE
TO MEET SOARING DEMAND FOR DIESEL, FUEL OIL, AND OTHER
REFINED OIL PRODUCTS--FORCING CHINA TO IMPORT WSJ A 14
TO CREATE A TRUE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY REQUIRES A HUGH INVESTMENT
IN ROADS AND HIGHWAYS IN CHINA WHICH TODAY HAS ABOUT 600,000
MILES OF PAVED ROADS (UP FROM 34,000 IN 1952) CLOSE TO LEVEL U.S.
POSSESSED AT END OF l9TH CENTURY
BUT AT A TIANJIN AUTOMOTIVE PLANT, THE DIRECTOR ARGUES THAT
"THE CHINESE AUTO INDUSTRY IS JUST AT THE BEGINNING STAGE OF
DEVELOPMENT--THERE IS NO NECESSITY TO WORRY ABOUT SOME OF
THE PROBLEMS THAT WILL CROP UP IN THE FUTURE."
(NY times 9/22/95 c1,5)
MIGHT BE NOTED THAT THIS AUTOMOBILE PHENOMENA IS FOUND IN MOST
DEVELOPING ASIAN COUNTRIES AS WELL FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, TO
INDIA--ALL FACE THE SAME ISSUES OF SCARCITY OF RESOURCES
INDIA MAKES A CHEAP CAR ($6000) SO WESTERN FIRMS
ARE ENTERING WITH HIGH COST MODELS EVEN THOUGH FEW
INDIANS CAN AFFORD THEM,
BUT FOREIGN FIRMS BELIEVE MUST BE IN THE MARKET "UNLESS
I GET A FOOTHOLD IN INDIA AND CHINA, I CAN'T RETAIN MY
NAME AS ONE OF THE TOP CAR PRODUCERS IN THE WORLD" 10-11-95
FORD REP
3. WHY ISN'T THERE CONCERN IN CHINA WITH THE DOWNSIDE OF THE
AUTOMOBILE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROBLEM OF OIL AND LAND SCARCITY?
-STATUS AND PRESTIGE OF HAVING A WORLD CLASS
AUTOMOBILE SECTOR
-AVAILABILITY OF TECHNOLOGICAL AND CAPITAL SUPPORT
FROM SUCCESSFUL FOREIGN FIRMS EAGER TO BE PLAYERS
IN THE PROSPECTIVE CHINA MARKET FOR CARS
-A KNOWN TECHNOLOGY THAT IS WIDELY AVAILABLE--CHINA IS IN
A BUYER'S MARKET;
-OPTING FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES OR PRIVATE RAPID
TRANSPORT SYSTEMS WHILE MAY BE CUTTING EDGE AND
APPEARS TO BE A MUCH MORE RATIONAL CHOICE, DOES NOT HAVE
AS MANY SUPPLIERS AND THUS NOT AS COMPETITIVE
AND WOULD HAVE TO RELY EVEN MORE HEAVILY ON OUTSIDE
TECHNICAL KNOW-HOW WHICH CAN BE SEEN AS UNDERCUTTING
THE CONTROLLING ASPECT OF THE CHINESE SYSTEM; THEREFORE
MORE OF A THREAT THAN JOINT VENTURES WITH KNOWN PRODUCERS;
PLUS HAVE TO FINANCE MOST IF NOT ALL OF PRODUCTION
-JOINT VENTURES WITH FOREIGN AUTO COMPANIES ENABLES CHINA
TO OBTAIN MODERN MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY, TO LEARN MODERN
MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES, TO EARN FOREIGN EXCHANGE THRU THE
EXPORT OF THE MANUFACTURED PRODUCT, AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
COMPETITIVE IN EXPORTING THEIR PRODUCTS AND FOREIGN FIRMS
OFFER FINANCIAL INCENTIVES THE FOREIGN FIRM IS IN CHINA
BECAUSE OF THE HIGH WALL OF TARIFF CHINA HAS BUILT AROUND
THE INDUSTRY, BECAUSE IT WANTS ACCESS TO THE VAST CHINA MARKET,
AND BECAUSE IT BELIEVES THAT LOW WAGE CHINESE WORKERS WITH HIGH
LEARNING ABILITY OFFER PROFIT POTENTIAL
MARIA MORGAN, "REVIEW" IN CHINA REVIEW INTERNATIONAL,
2:2 (Fall 1995), 469-476
THUS, THE WORLD HAS TO FACE THE REALITY OF CHINA COMING ON LINE
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 2lST CENTURY WITH A MODE
OF TRANSPORTATION DESIGNED FOR THE 2OTH CENTURY THAT WILL
RAPIDLY BECOME A DINOSAUR BUT WILL ADD MUCH DESTRUCTION
TO AN ALREADY CHALLENGED ECOSYSTEM BEFORE IT RUNS OUT OF GAS.