Forecasting by Analogy: Notes from the CuSee-Me interaction with Mickey Glantz

Below is an account of the 50 minute interaction between the Global Change class and Mickey Glantz, author of Forecasting by Analogy. If you wish, you may want to examine the technical aspects that when on behind the scenes.

Overview

• He emphasized that the course examines interdisciplinary topics
• Through the curriculum students examine human progress
• The question now: How do humans respond to climate change?

Forecasting by Analogy

• Overview - using models and correlating them with activities
• Use input of models to make scenarios of the future that societies can respond to.
• Models are not yet ready for policy use - especially at regional and local levels where people feel the greates impact.
• Idea (for Forecasting by Analogy) stimulated by a reaction of how we can get a better handle on forecasting.
• (Focus on) changes in the physical atmosphere and changes in ecology due to changes in human activities.
• Social scientists need long-term baseline data.
• On a decadal scale in the recent past, study the societal strengths and weaknesses for (significant) events.
• There is more likely a climate variability, so ask, "How well has society responded to climate variability?"
• All you need to get started is a pencil and some history.

• Describe Prevention, Compensation, Adaption
  • Action has a cost - what do we do in the future? Examine the Salt Lake Case.
  • Mitigation - proaction prior to change. Example: (1) burn coal; (2) Global warming; (3) acid rain. Pays to look at the use of coal.
  • Adaption - reaction to change.
  • Today, we moved from prevention to adaption, which has become a murky combination of mitigation and adaption. The use of CFCs is an example. The key is that CFC producers are finite.
  • On the other hand, CO2 producers are widespread and therefore production is much more difficult to change.
  • Question: using a bank analogy, is it time for the industrialized countries to put back environmental quality (a so called "clean environment") so that developing countries can industrialize (essentially go through the same process we did, including increasing CO2 emissions)? The key here could be helping the developing countries to industrialize with better technology. The problem is that technology is still difficult to transfer.

• Ogallala Analogy
  • Nebraska is still in good shape.
  • High Plains (Texas), which is at the edge of the aquifer, is running out of water. What kind of actions were taken as they realized they were running out?
    • Farmers could: (1) abandon the farm; (2) drill deeper wells; (3) move to dry land farming.
  • Examine how people are changing as the regional water balance changes

Intra- vs intergenerational issues

• Problem: how do you get some control on intergenerational issues? What about intragenerational issues? Why should we be concerned about 50 years from now when we can't solve issues of now?
  • We should have a 5 generation conference to discuss the intergenerational issues, looking for new solutions, and link this to intragenerational equity.
  • We are really saying that from now on we want to preserve the planet for the next generation?
  • Renewable does not imply rapid time - more likely multi-generations. Even coal is renewable in several hundred million years.
  • Question posed by a student: Are there winners and losers in Global Warming? There are winners and losers, it depends on your point of view (i.e. an Ethiopian farmer would see himself as a loser in Global Warming).
  • Question posed by a student: How can tradable permits help with individuals, say with CO2? You have to look at the bulk of individuals who contribute to CO2. It is easier to go to the "new" contributors than the existing ones.

  Final remarks

  The idea for Forecasting by Analogy is to get an idea fo how well soceity is able to adjust to change. Generally speaking, recent past studies can help us for the future. Physical scientists use analogues for reasoning as well as social scientists. "Analogy" is a social scientist's word for an analogue.