2-1: Climate System and Climate Predictability

Pre-Class Preparation

Objectives

• To understand the elements that comprise the climate system and how they interact.
• To explore the concept of predictability and understand the difference between weather forecasts and climate simulation.

Procedure

1. Read the learning unit.

   Class images

2. Take the learning unit quiz. Quizzes are available from your portfolio. You may access your portfolio via the list of students participating in this years course, as represented by the icon below.
   
   
3. Additional Required Reading. Although you are not ultimately responsible for content listed in this section, we encourage you to fully explore the links in order to provide a better scope on the upcoming class discussion.

   	An introduction to the climate system. (From the United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP)
   	Houghton, J. T., L. G. Meira Filho, B. A. Callander N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, 1996: Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 233-235.
   	Houghton, J. T., G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, 1990: Climate Change, The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press. p. 75-80.

Class Discussion

• Problem to ponder...
  If humans are perturbing the Earth's climate, what will be the first evidence of such perturbations?

• Class Discussion Summary: by classmates Kathryn St.Croix and Bill Schroeder

  We learned about the validation of climate models. We know that they can never be completely validated. Most of the models are good in certain areas and the variability of them is mixed. Models are also good for slow changes such as El Nino and volcanos; and all models show significant departures from observations(normally they are higher than actual observations). We also have two ways to explain climate change. They are 1) equilibrium simulation and 2) transient simulation. The transient simulation represents real world time scales.

Post-Class Activities

• Participate in the electronic dialog. Use this forum for:
  • continuing class discussion;
  • posing new questions to students or the instructor;
  • responding to issues/questions raised by students in class/electronic dialog.

  Visitor Access (Visitors are welcome to participate in the dialog. Just click on the icon below)	Student Access (Students must post all dialog from their portfolio. Click on the icon below to access the student list.)

• Recommended Reading

  	NOAA home page
  	United Nations fact sheets on climate change: Causes of climate change.
  	Houghton, J.T., G.J. Jenkins, J.J. Ephraums, eds, 1990: 1990 Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 73-77.
  	Perry, T. S., 1993: Modeling the world's climate. IEEE Spectrum, July, 33-41.

• References

  	Hou, Arthur Y. et al., 1995: Modulation of dynamic heating in the winter extratropics associated with the cross-equatorial Hadley circulation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 52, 2609-2626.
  	Kerr, R., 1994: Official forecasts pushed out to a year ahead. Science, 266, 1940-1941.
  	Ojima, D., 1992: Modeling the Earth System: Papers arising from the 1990 OIES Global Change Institute, UCAR/Office for Interdisciplinary Earth Studies, 448 pages.