Climate Change and the History of the Middle East

Pete Smith

In the document, Mr. Issar proposes that the climatic changes which happened in the Middle East over the past 5000 years were due more too climate changes then the people in the area changing the land. The way he proposes the greatest factor associated with the desertification of the land and the deserting of town and cities of the region was due to the changes in the hydrologic cycle. This cycle was also affected by regional and global warming of the time. The point the author is trying to make is that the history of the Middle East may be a very good pointer to the future of the middle east, and potentially other regions of the world.

Using History to Draw Conclusions On Change

The author of the article asks that we rethink the event in history and look at them in terms of climatic change to determine why things may have changed in the region rather then just accepting the common or accepted answer. To illustrate this, the author states that the common belief for the deserts encroaching on agricultural lands, cities being deserted, and nomadic tribes invading prosperous cities and communities were the result of human actives rather then environmental events. The was thought to be the case because of events in history the coincided with each other. On of these such events was the Arab invasion of the Middle East and the desertion of the Negev desert. The Arab invasion of the Middle East was thought to be the cause of desertification in the Middle East because in their invading, the destroyed the agricultural economy and allowed the sand dunes to move in on these fragile areas.

This scenario was questioned when the author became aware of an invasion of sand that happened almost 15,000 years prior to more recent invasion of desert that was mentioned above. Samples of fossil water, or water that was present in aquifers located in the area at the time of the sand invasion, were taken from the aquifers below Israel and were shown to be full of dust. These samples are similar to ice cores, which we have talked about in class, that area used to determine gas concentration in the atmosphere prior to recorded data. As stated, these samples of fossil water were shown to be full of dust. First off, the fact that there is this source of water here means that during the last great glacial period, there was a time of heavy rain which allowed for the establishment of these fossil waters. As this water filtered through ground it deposited the dust and formed the wind-blown loess material. Because of the presence of the loess material, as the climate warmed up, the sand dunes where allowed uninterrupted access into the coastal plain regions and of course ruining the agricultural economy.

Another aspect considered by the author is the fact that there was possibly an increase of sand in the Nile river. When the Nile came out of its banks, all of that sand was deposited on the land and worked toward increasing the desertification affect. The reason for increase sand and sediment deposits in the Nile is related to class discussion on how warming trends in the environment can cause sever drought in some areas while causing monsoon type weather in other areas. With the warming of the Middle East happening, the strength and frequency of monsoons over sub-tropical Africa increased, causing the water flow and sedimentation in the Nile river. At the same time the warming and increase river flow was happening, the warming was causing the polar ice caps to melt and raise the levels of the ocean and seas surrounding the Middle East. This aided in the increasing the amounts of sediment found on the shores of Sinai and Israel. The allowed sand dunes to start in two directions, one from land, and one from the coastal plain.

If The Reason Farmers Deserted Wasn’t A Climate Change, What Was It?

According to the article, it is still believed that the reason some of these cities and civilizations fell about was because the commerce and economics of the communities went bad and farmers had now one to govern them or support them. Evidence showing that farmers primarily developed small valleys for agriculture does not support this idea of the farmer depending on the commerce in the city to survive. Farming was done in areas were it was almost unfeasible to farm. People were living and farming for themselves in these valleys. Other evidence is presented in the article suggesting that there was a warming trend that drove farmers from their land rather then commerce systems crashing. Samples of oxygen 18 and oxygen 16 were taken from carbonate deposits found lakes and caves The oxygen 18 indicates ambient temperature or average air temperature. If the levels are low, the temperatures were cooler. If the levels of O18 are high, the temperatures were high. From analyzing the samples, it was determined that there was a rather apparent increase in temperatures between 700 and 900 c.e. This information was backed up by studies done by Mira Stiller and colleagues at the Weizman Institute in Rehovot, Israel. Other studies show that the levels of the Mediterranean Sea were at their peak near the same time. This is due to the polar ice caps warming and melting. The levels of the Dead Sea were shown to be high around the same time. This is strange because the Dead Sea is feed by rainwater, so for the Dead Sea to have risen there would have had to been an increase in rainfall, which ties back to the monsoon affects on the Nile and warmer ambient temperatures. This suggests that rather than Byzantine domination of the Middle East and the Arab incursion desertifieing the land, it was more likely the drier warmer climate that forced a decline in rainfed agriculture in this particular part of the Middle East, because as stated earlier, warmer climate can cause some areas to become extremely moist, while other areas become very dry.

People were forced to irrigate agricultural fields of the time so that moister was present for growth, and the decline in river flow may have been cause for a society working themselves off the land, although it may not be all their fault. When they irrigated, salt was left deposited on the sites. When rivers flooded, the salt was washed away and sediment was dropped to provide a good growing medium. When available moisture when down due to warm weather, rivers did not flood and fields were not washed of the salt. These people caused the increased salinity of their soil, slowly making the soils capable of growing nothing.

From The Past, Where Do We Go In The Future?

The author is continuing his work by looking at historical items like the bible to find other environmental and climactic changes that affect society on a social, political and economic level. When the Middle East had cool periods, cities flourished and when the Middle East went through dry spells, the Middle East struggled. According to the author, general-circulation models affirm the fact that the eastern part of the Mediterranean is warming again. The models take into consideration solar radiation and albedo to simulate climatic records that will forecast large scale changes in the future. Looking at these models, we may be in the warming period of a cool spell, which means water resources in the Middle East do not, or will not be promising in the future. A possible way to curb the affects of the warming, increasing monsoon conditions and continued drying weather is to plant lands in the semi-arid lands to for green belts along the desert front lines to try and resort the area to its native condition, slow the progression of desertification and aid in the slowing of the greenhouse affect, by using and storing carbon dioxide.

The author does not feel the desertification problem can be solved, but with these measures, it can be lessened, hopefully.

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