Verification for Adair County

Contents

-Day 1 Verification

-Day 2 Verification

-Day 3 Verification

-Day 4 Verification

-Day 5 Verification

 

DAY 1 Verification

Reliability Diagrams

Frequency Histograms

Reliability and Frequency Table

Forecast Probability (%)
Observed Frequency (%) / # of Samples
P>0.01 P>0.10 P>0.25
P>0.50
 P>0.75 P>1.00 P>1.50 P>2.00
0
 7.28856 73.027 3.34148 94.2242 2.6128 107.613 1.80462 128.05 0.713104 134.963 0 136.15 0.140558 142 0 145
25
 32.0698 12.5235 11.731 12.1749 22.0229 13.2615 2.02854 7.85038 19.8756 5.03731 30.459 6.66345 0 3.51149 0 2.85038
50
 24.1958 10.3349 36.4251 8.13695 26.4314 9.8234 54.3605 3.64807 33.3333 3 46.8845 2.18693 nan 1.48851 nan 0.149618
75
 54.7188 14.3142 41.097 15.2139 49.862 8.11465 27.352 4.65079 63.3401 2.80041 92.5191 1.14962 nan 0 nan 0
100
 74.8163 37.8004 87.3946 18.2499 65.7936 9.18693 53.3265 3.80041 53.3265 2.19959 16.8273 1.85038 0 1 nan 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAY 2 Verification

Reliability Diagrams

Frequency Histograms

Reliability and Frequency Table

Forecast Probability (%)
Observed Frequency (%) / # of Samples
P>0.01 P>0.10 P>0.25 P>0.50 P>0.75 P>1.00 P>1.50 P>2.00
0
 8.45737 54.6508 6.70502 88.9374 5.38264 104.337 1.80196 119.174 0.773345 124.401 0.381195 130.137 0.622875 136.601 0 137.675
25
 33.0004 17.125 13.7697 15.6488 16.875 15.5488 1.69934 11.9754 15.8012 11.3619 35.4224 7.06264 0 3.39919 0 3.32457
50
 14.3216 20.3115 35.6294 12.2516 42.5606 9.00234 20.3268 3.70076 27.2851 3.83772 4.98411 3.63812 0 1 nan 0
75
 48.5115 19.7631 51.1164 14.0127 20.327 6.41155 33.7303 3.67543 93.3469 1.39919 nan 0.162283 nan 0 nan 0
100
 71.9918 29.1496 80.272 10.1496 67.9135 5.70076 90.9556 2.47418 nan 0 nan 0 nan 0 nan 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAY 3 Verification

Reliability Diagrams

Frequency Histograms

Reliability and Frequency Table

Forecast Probability (%)
Observed Frequency (%) / # of Samples
P>0.01 P>0.10 P>0.25 P>0.50 P>0.75 P>1.00 P>1.50 P>2.00
0
 13.723 66.6881 7.11393 90.2226 4.82882 99.6508 2.97081 112.224 3.25783 121.648 2.39929 125.037 0.660419 128.651 0 131
25
 28.0799 20.1147 18.5602 16.5258 23.4781 17.4988 8.53297 12.3142 0 7.07696 0 5.14962 0 4.34921 0 2
50
 26.5581 9.55913 40.2551 11.8897 46.0807 7.50117 13.2373 8.46152 3.63745 4.47418 26.5577 3.81307 0 1 0 2
75
 42.7708 13.2913 52.454 8.5488 31.9309 8.34921 100 2 100 1.80041 18.6928 1 0 1 nan 0
100
 72.4869 25.3469 72.3039 7.81307 50 2 nan 0 nan 0 nan 0 nan 0 nan 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAY 4 Verification

Reliability Diagrams

Frequency Histograms

Reliability and Frequency Table

Forecast Probability (%)
Observed Frequency (%) / # of Samples
P>0.01 P>0.10 P>0.25 P>0.50 P>0.75 P>1.00 P>1.50 P>2.00
0
 17.8152 54.3488 10.222 82.4742 8.20334 99.5615 3.88301 110.776 3.36336 117.813 3.23386 123.698 0.664361 128 0 128
25
 24.7641 22.3892 21.4829 18.5401 12.4344 14.2762 10.1466 11.9873 11.9735 8.38652 0 3.50117 nan 0 nan 0
50
 24.6357 15.5635 36.7806 9.83606 22.7849 7.88807 0 2.21226 0 1.80041 nan 0.800407 nan 0 nan 0.837717
75
 41.3373 15.3595 28.7405 8.29924 11.2978 4.27421 35.7271 2.87503 nan 0 nan 0 nan 0 nan 0.162283
100
 64.1747 21.3389 67.8784 9.85038 72.0761 3 92.5191 1.14962 100 1 18.6928 1 0 1 nan 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAY 5 Verification

Reliability Diagrams

Frequency Histograms

Reliability and Frequency Table

Forecast Probability (%)
Observed Frequency (%) / # of Samples
P>0.01 P>0.10 P>0.25 P>0.50 P>0.75 P>1.00 P>1.50 P>2.00
0
 14.5506 53.6881 5.79848 82.3869 3.30419 94.5115 3.11849 107.501 2.99258 112.175 3.42918 117.299 0.697034 122 0 124.312
25
 18.8428 18.7604 43.4487 12.987 34.3709 11.9123 10.3659 9.29924 11.3365 8.83772 2.31833 6.05035 0 3 0 1.6881
50
 55.4194 12.6015 50.2017 12.5265 30.4581 7.92538 18.5098 6.19959 18.7634 4.17426 0 2.65079 0 1 nan 0
75
 51.3027 13.9627 62.5872 7.95003 59.5373 9.06468 50 2 nan 0.813072 nan 0 nan 0 nan 0
100
 68.3745 26.9873 50.6801 10.1496 53.6129 2.58611 3.73094 1 nan 0 nan 0 nan 0 nan 0