Verification for Region 1

Contents

-Day 1 Verification

-Day 2 Verification

-Day 3 Verification

-Day 4 Verification

-Day 5 Verification

 

DAY 1 Verification

Reliability Diagrams

Frequency Histograms

Reliability and Frequency Table

Forecast Probability (%)
Observed Frequency (%) / # of Samples
P>0.01 P>0.10 P>0.25
P>0.50
 P>0.75 P>1.00 P>1.50 P>2.00
0
 4.13 241968. 2.85 338135. 2.49 403736. 2.26 461114. 1.81 495275. 1.23 517056. 0.61 540097. 0.30 550143.
25
 15.03 60746. 16.74 61458. 19.14 51401. 18.53 42283. 14.53 33422. 13.25 25155. 7.06 14343. 3.85 8874.
50
 26.00 49141. 30.60 40386. 34.76 32820. 29.99 22414. 26.43 15395. 23.93 9839. 12.58 4403. 10.13 2022.
75
 45.09 53281. 47.30 43336. 48.88 33044. 40.52 18853. 39.38 9381. 32.64 6040. 25.72 2041. 35.06 579.
100
 76.94 156672. 74.17 78493. 64.89 40807. 54.28 17144. 47.45 8335. 36.87 3718. 33.54 924. 25.78 190.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAY 2 Verification

Reliability Diagrams

Frequency Histograms

Reliability and Frequency Table

Forecast Probability (%)
Observed Frequency (%) / # of Samples
P>0.01 P>0.10 P>0.25 P>0.50 P>0.75 P>1.00 P>1.50 P>2.00
0
 5.33 215915. 4.15 321886. 4.09 386441. 3.15 441489. 2.28 472856. 1.55 492269. 0.59 513759. 0.30 523552.
25
 16.37 67562. 20.24 66517. 21.01 60459. 17.46 49311. 12.78 37940. 8.32 28650. 5.08 16588. 3.93 10420.
50
 28.32 62697. 34.11 48070. 30.23 37944. 25.32 22663. 20.44 13761. 18.59 8948. 18.55 3583. 10.70 990.
75
 46.12 60494. 45.20 43422. 43.88 27913. 36.22 13544. 35.48 7112. 34.01 3851. 29.38 997. 18.18 198.
100
 71.95 128568. 66.54 55341. 63.07 22479. 54.98 8229. 47.40 3567. 34.78 1518. 34.62 309. 46.05 76.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAY 3 Verification

Reliability Diagrams

Frequency Histograms

Reliability and Frequency Table

Forecast Probability (%)
Observed Frequency (%) / # of Samples
P>0.01 P>0.10 P>0.25 P>0.50 P>0.75 P>1.00 P>1.50 P>2.00
0
 8.91 219310. 7.06 327324. 5.70 383160. 3.82 429567. 2.65 456663. 1.75 473833. 0.67 491920. 0.30 501416.
25
 20.10 70350. 23.52 59436. 20.43 52349. 16.82 41433. 12.58 33053. 8.32 25237. 5.80 15977. 4.77 9552.
50
 33.51 56298. 34.79 41060. 34.18 31129. 26.67 22451. 20.65 14428. 16.98 9646. 11.25 3972. 8.61 1369.
75
 47.02 54508. 44.72 37407. 40.59 26443. 33.72 12965. 31.65 6431. 28.61 3243. 19.81 545. 17.07 123.
100
 68.95 111994. 59.89 47233. 49.12 19379. 33.45 6044. 26.31 1885. 26.74 501. 0. 46. NAN 0.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAY 4 Verification

Reliability Diagrams

Frequency Histograms

Reliability and Frequency Table

Forecast Probability (%)
Observed Frequency (%) / # of Samples
P>0.01 P>0.10 P>0.25 P>0.50 P>0.75 P>1.00 P>1.50 P>2.00
0
 12.72 200066. 8.67 308014. 6.80 365002. 4.80 415253. 3.21 443195. 2.06 458235. 0.83 473458. 0.40 481619.
25
 22.18 77977. 22.57 59055. 22.11 54998. 14.61 41148. 11.76 28989. 8.97 21502. 5.22 13481. 2.29 7325.
50
 30.96 51932. 35.63 46949. 29.17 34052. 20.96 17768. 15.55 10637. 14.40 6686. 12.39 2098. 2.52 593.
75
 47.23 56203. 41.25 38693. 34.94 21024. 32.30 9827. 32.28 4599. 22.13 2309. 4.52 376. 1.07 93.
100
 61.07 103506. 55.12 36973. 51.66 14608. 38.73 5688. 37.54 2264. 26.89 952. 11.43 271. 0. 54.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAY 5 Verification

Reliability Diagrams

Frequency Histograms

Reliability and Frequency Table

Forecast Probability (%)
Observed Frequency (%) / # of Samples
P>0.01 P>0.10 P>0.25 P>0.50 P>0.75 P>1.00 P>1.50 P>2.00
0
 14.48 193789. 9.42 301534. 7.52 355518. 5.19 402214. 3.57 427673. 2.39 444109. 1.03 462444. 0.50 471068.
25
 24.65 75220. 26.89 57442. 29.27 54032. 23.47 43446. 18.78 33410. 13.35 25150. 6.07 13719. 3.17 6781.
50
 36.32 53534. 43.78 43521. 34.10 33812. 25.63 18725. 17.57 11009. 12.17 6586. 3.88 1851. 2.11 378.
75
 48.31 53202. 46.87 39484. 38.94 21525. 28.07 9428. 18.96 4483. 12.88 1909. 4.27 281. 0. 69.
100
 64.35 102551. 55.65 36315. 48.94 13409. 35.51 4483. 25.21 1721. 12.73 542. 0. 1. NAN 0.