Timing

Forecasts can be submitted between 00Z to 16Z

Forecast verification will begin at 1630Z and goes through 1200Z the next day. Any tornadoes that happen before 1630Z do not count.

We will forecast every Monday through Friday

Scoring

Scores are evaluated by comparing the distance between forecast points and tornadoes/warnings

Scoring will add up; more points are better

Verification will happen several days after the event

Forecast Submission

Use your email you registered with to input a forecast

Choose "Yes Tornado" or "No Tornado" based on your intuition and forecast

If "Yes Tornado" is chosen, continue forward to input your point forecast

Abbreviations: Distance to tornado/damage report (DTT); Distance to warning (DTW); Maximum possible tornado score (MaxTor; 30 pts)

Score = Distance + Warnings + Podium + Lone Wolf Bonus (when applicable)

Calculating the Distance Component:

If DTT < 25 miles:

• Distance Component = (0.02255 * DTT^2)-(1.1248*DTT)+(MaxTor-0.9425)
• Exponential decrease in reward as you get further away... at 25 miles == 15 points

If DTT > 25 miles, but DTT < 100 miles

• Distance Component = ((-DTT*((0.5*MaxTor)/75))+(2/3*MaxTor))
• Linear decrease in the reward as you get farther away out to 100 miles

If DTT > 100 miles

• Distance Component=0

Calculating the Warning Component:

This is based off of the number of warnings you intersect or are near...

• Inside a warning (+8)
• Near a warning (+4), where the DTW ≤ 10 miles
• Example calculation: your forecast intersects 2 warnings and is near 1 more. Warning Component = (2*8) + (1*4)

Determining the "Lone Wolf":

If you are 100+ miles from the next nearest forecaster, and DTT < 25 miles: +30 points

Podium Component:

1st place = +12

2nd place = +8

3rd place = +4

When there are no tornado reports...

If you forecasted "No Tornado" you will receive points according to the SPC risk at 1630UTC

Forecast regions do not affect scoring. They offer forecasters the ability to explore their forecasting accuracy in different environments.

This website (courtesy of Elizabeth Tirone)... and a renewed partnership with the Student Chapter of AMS at Iowa State University!

A map is now provided along with the submission form to make gathering latitudes and longitudes easier!

We will be gathering data for sig tornado forecasts and we will try encorporate those data into verification statistics

We are using last year's forecasts to conduct research