Meteorology 455/555: Dynamic Meterology III

Spring 2006

Instructor: William J. Gutowski, Jr.

gutowski@iastate.edu					294-5632 [tel]
3021 Agronomy						294-2619 [fax]

My page at Ge-At Department faculty site.

Objectives

1. To synthesize previous coursework into an understanding of the nature and maintenance of the general circulation.
2. To undertand the dynamics of the water cycle.
3. To explore and understand the capabilities and limitations of contemporary seasonal forecasting
4. To strengthen and expand capability for scientific research.

Texts

• Holton, Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology, 4th Ed.
• Peixoto and Oort, Physics of Climate.

This course synthesizes elements from previous semesters:

From Chapter 5 [Holton]

• Coupling of surface and atmospheric circulation

From Chapter 6 [Holton]

• Q-G description of atmospheric dynamics
• Temperature advection needed for growth
• Vertical motions relatively weak, yet important for Q-G system

From Chapter 7 [Holton]

• Wave motions in atmosphere
• Rossby waves which have synoptic space and time scales
• Linearized equations

From Chapter 8 [Holton]

• Instability of the large-scale flow
• Energetics of formation of new disturbances
• Two-layer model

Topics this semester:

General Circulation

1. Decompositions of the General Circulation (P&O - Chapter 4, Sections 1 and 2)
2. History (My notes and Holton - Chapter 10, Section 1)
3. Angular Momentum Cycle (P&O - Chapter 10; also Holton - Ch. 10, Sect. 3)
4. Water Cycle (P&O - Chapter 11)
5. Energy Cycle (Holton - Chapter 10, Section 2)
6. Zonal Mean Cell Circulations (Holton, Chapter 10, Section 4)
7. General Circulation Models (My notes and Holton, Chapter 10, Section 6)

Parallel activity: Seasonal forecasting

In this activity, we will explore current state-of-the-science in seasonal forecasting. This will be done through a series of exercises leading to our own evaluation of seasonal forecasts, from the perspective of end-users.

Further details are provided on the class's Seasonal Forecasting web page, where some of your work will be posted.

Possible additional topics:

Observational Archives for the General Circulation

• Forecase/Analysis systems (My notes)
• Analysis techniques (My notes)

Numerical Weather Prediction

Tropics

• Structure and Circulation (My notes and Holton, Chapter 12, Section 1)
• Convection (Holton, Chapter 12, Section 2)

Stratosphere

• Circulation (My notes and Holton, Chapter 11, Section 1)
• Energetics (Holton, Chapter 11, Section 2)

Grade determination - Meteorology 455

Seasonal forecasting activity	25 %
Two exams	50 %
Problems	25 %

The course grade is determined in part by how people do with respect to each other and how the class as a whole has done. This gives a starting point for assessing what each student has demonstrated with regard to his/her grasp of the material. The total score from tests, labs, etc. is NOT judged on a scale of below 60 = F, 60 - 69 = D, etc.

Grade determination - Meteorology 555

Problems

• Due 1 week after assigned
• Late: lose 10 percentage points of credit per working day late up to 75%

Project/Problems Groups

The seasonal forecasting project and the problem sets should be done by assigned Project/Problems Groups.

Every person who contributes to the group's solution will get the same score. Discussion with others outside your group is encouraged. Only one solution is to be submitted from the group, and all contributors should sign the solution paper. Persons not contributing will receive no credit. Problem sets are due one week after they are assigned at the end of class (unless stated otherwise).

On-line Assignements

These are in .pdf format and require the Adobe Acrobat Reader. It can be downloaded from Adobe. I will tell you when each one is assigned and due.

Reading assignments of journal papers require you to read the document and then report to me in one paragraph:

1. What was the subject of the paper?
2. What are the primary conclusion(s)?
3. How is the primary message of the paper conveyed (what examples are used)?
4. What further research is suggested?

• Problem Set 1
• Problem Set 2
• Problem Set 3
• Reading Assignment 1: Past theories of the general circulation (from Lorenz, 1967: The Nature and Theory of the General Circulation of the Atmosphere. WMO Report No. 281.TP.115).
• Reading Assignment 2: Sivillo et al., 1997: An Ensemble Forecasting Primer.
• Reading Assignment 3: Kanamitsu et al., 2002: NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000.

Special notes

• 13-22 January 2006 (Friday, Monday, Wednesday & Friday classes)
• 22 February 2006 (Wednesday class - I should be in class, but may be late)
• 24-26 April 2006 (Monday & Wednesday classes)

Sample problems on water cycle, notation and general circulation history.

Sample problems of mean cell motion are available for study.

Sample problems from prior end-of-semester tests are available for 1996 and 1998 tests.

The final test will be given during the exam period: Tentatively, this is 12:00 - 2:00 pm, Friday, 5 May 2005, in the classroom (3128 Agronomy).

Grades on final test and for the course (pdf) will be posted here.

Please email me copies of your schedules. What times are you available for make-up classes?

Some lectures

1. Precipitable water vs. temperature using satellite retrievals of precipitable water over southern oceans.

Students Needing Disability Accommodation

Iowa State University complies with the Americans with Disabilities Act and Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act. Please address any special needs or special accommodations with me at the beginning of the semester or as soon as you become aware of your needs. Those seeking accommodations based on disabilities should obtain a Student Academic Accommodations Request (SAAR) form from the Disabilities Resources (DR) office (515-294-6624), located on the main floor of the Student Services Building, Room 1076.

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