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Food and Fiber
Food and fiber production may be influenced by (a) direct effects
of changes in temperature, water balance, atmospheric composition, and
extreme events, and (b) indirect effects through changes in distribution
frequency and severity of pest and disease outbreaks, incidence of fire and
weed infestations or through changes in soil properties. Fisheries are
vulnerable to changes in water temperature, water levels, precipitation
patterns, and ocean circulation patterns.
Global agricultural production is relatively insensitive to global
climate change of the magnitude previously determined to be expected in the
next 60 years. However, marginal lands, much of which lies in developing
countries, will be more prone to reduced yields due to increased frequency
of crop failure and land degradation and desertification. Some regions,
such as Canada and Russia can expect increased yields.
Adaptation of
farming practices through new crops, improved water management, better
strategies on crop selection and planting will buffer adverse effects.
Tropical forests seem more vulnerable to land-use changes than
climate change (recall that climate in tropical areas is not projected to
change markedly under global warming). Boreal forests are more vulnerable
to reduction due to climate change. Increased demand for wood for various
human uses will create increased pressure on global forest
supplies.
Current levels of overfishing have more negative impact than
projected climate changes. High latitude production of fish in open waters
and through aquaculture likely will increase. Smaller lakes and streams
will be more negatively impacted by climate change than large rivers and
larger bodies of water. Loss of coastal wetlands as essential breeding
grounds may have significant impact.