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The Environmental Challenge
The strains of meeting the energy and food requirements of an
advancing Chinese economy will put heavy demands on Chinese internal supply
sources. And if these needs are not met internally, international markets
will experience a significant impact. There are contentions that many
areas of the world, including the US, already are engaging in
long-term-unsustainable agricultural practices in an effort to meet current
needs. It is therefore a global challenge to assist China to increase its
agricultural and energy-production efficiency to protect sustainability
both in China in other parts of the world.
Smil estimates (Table 3) that pollution (air, water, and solid waste) cost the Chinese 30 to 44 billion RMB ($1 = 8.3 RMB) in 1990. Technologies to dramatically reduce these costs are readily available but presumably at costs judged not economically feasible by the Chinese government. Smil further estimates China's environmental degradation for 1990 (Table 4) to range from 66 to 125 billion RMB, much of which directly or indirectly relates to food production.
Smil (1996b) concludes that "...it is extremely unlikely that the economic cost of China's environmental pollution and ecosystemic degradation was less than 5% of the country's GDP in 1990. A range of 6-8 % is the most likely conservative estimate..." He goes on to say that if some of the more elusive factors not considered in his analysis were factored in, the rate could be as high as 15%. These numbers would seem to justify substantial investment by the Chinese government beyond the 0.56 to 0.81% presently allocated. There are recent indications (Prof. Bing-Lin Young, personal communication) that the present restructuring of the Chinese government will bring more emphasis on environmental issues.
China's transformation to an industrialized economy will require widespread implementation of advanced technologies relating to energy and food production. This task represents a sobering task, as represented by the expression of a downtown Beijing lion.
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