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Introduction
The increased energy and food needs of China have been the topic of
considerable dialog in both political and economic circles (Brown, 1994;
Drennen and Erickson, 1998), and the environmental consequences of these
increased needs have been evaluated (Smil, 1996b). The Chinese
population stands at 1.3 billion, with the likely prospect of adding an
additional 490 million people by 2030. The gross domestic product of China
has increased by 11% per year during the 1990's, which has led to a
substantial increase in purchasing power (Drennen and Erickson, 1998).
Meeting the needs of a rapidly advancing economy from a relatively primitive condition brings rapid increases in use of fertilizer, irrigation water, cement, fuels for electrical generators, and fuels for internal combustion engines. The resulting byproducts and environmental consequences of this rapid growth in a country lacking strong voices for the rights and well-being of individuals have the potential to jeopardize the long-term (in some cases, even short-term) viability of natural ecosystem services and ultimately the health and well-being of the Chinese people.
Previous essays have focused attention on who will supply the food to meet China's needs (Brown, 1994: Who will feed China?; Prosterman et al, 1996: Can China feed itself?) and who will supply the oil to meet China's needs (Drennen and Erickson, 1998: Who will fuel China?). A looming issue, regardless of who supplies these needs or even whether they are completely met, is the global environmental consequence of feeding and fueling a technologically advancing society the size of China.
I was a member of the May 1997 IITAP delegation led by the Provost that visited China under the Sustainable Development - Henan (SDH) project supported by the Office of the Provost and coordinated by Professor Bing-Lin Young. I present here some impressions from this visit and subsequent developments in the SDH project relating to environmental issues. An evaluation of the present status of energy and food consumption, together with reasonable projections of future growth in these areas, allows us to identify present and future environmental problems that ultimately will influence an ambitious and unconstrained trajectory for growth. Energy and food production are two areas of significant expertise at Iowa State University, so identification of impending problems and tracing these back to the goal of providing basic needs allows us to target areas of opportunity for research.