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Introduction
We have discussed how the impact of increased greenhouse gas
concentrations relates to increased radiative forcing, or heating, of the
atmosphere. To calculate the magnitude of future global warming due to
increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations, we need two items: (1)
projections of future atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and
(2) a global climate model to translate increased radiative forcing into
changes in surface temperatures. In this unit, we focus on the
projections of future concentrations of greenhouse gases. The topic of
global climate models will be covered in the second block of this course.