2-3: Climate Model Results - Equilibrium Models

Pre-Class Preparation

Objectives

• To understand the difference between equilibrium simulations and transient simulations of climate.
• To determine how well models can simulate the present observed climate.

Procedure

1. Read the learning unit.

   Class images

2. Take the learning unit quiz. Quizzes are available from your portfolio. You may access your portfolio via the list of students participating in this years course, as represented by the icon below.
   
   
3. Additional Required Reading. Although you are not ultimately responsible for content listed in this section, we encourage you to fully explore the links in order to provide a better scope on the upcoming class discussion.

   	Are climate models reliable? (From the United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP)
   	Houghton, J. T., L. G. Meira Filho, B. A. Callander N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, 1996: Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 246-275.
   	Houghton, J. T., G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, 1990: Climate Change, The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press. p.99-123.
   	Houghton, J.T., G.J. Jenkins, J.J. Ephraums, eds, 1990: 1990 Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 80-91.

Class Discussion

• Problem to ponder...
  

• Class Discussion Summary: By classmates Bill Godden and Ben Dude

  Discussion of climate forecasting started with transient model observations showing warming effects of 2xCO2 increase and cooling effects of aerosol and sulfate deposits in the atmosphere. These changes together did not show a significant change in global mean temperature. The acuracy of the global model affects the outcome of regional models. We then compared regional climate models to observed data for severe climatic conditions during 1988 and 1993. The models seemed to predict close to the actual observations. Showing closely the same areas of heavy rainfall in 93 and drought conditions for 88. The results of the models suggest that forecasting may predict a longer period of time than current 5 day forecasts.

Post-Class Activities

• Participate in the electronic dialog. Use this forum for:
  • continuing class discussion;
  • posing new questions to students or the instructor;
  • responding to issues/questions raised by students in class/electronic dialog.

  Visitor Access (Visitors are welcome to participate in the dialog. Just click on the icon below)	Student Access (Students must post all dialog from their portfolio. Click on the icon below to access the student list.)

• Recommended Reading Materials

  	Hileman, B., 1995: Climate Observations Substantiate Global Warming Models. From the American Chemical Society (ACS) , Publications Division.
  	Ojima, D. ed., 1992: Modeling the Earth System. UCAR/Office for Interdisciplinary Earth Studies, 3, 488 pp.
  	Climate Impact of Quadrupling Atmospheric CO2 An Overview of GFDL Climate Model Results. From Thomas Knutson's homepage, Geophysical and Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

• References

  	Paiva, E. M. et al.: Time trends in rainfall records in amazonia. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 76, 2203-2209.
  	Whetton, P. H., A. M. Fowler, M. R. Hayblock and A. D. Pittok. 1993: Implications of climate change due to enhanced greenhouse effect on flood and droughts in Australia. Climatic Change, December, 289-317.
  	Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) homepage.