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Double CO2 Models
An alternative way to estimate effects of future enhanced
greenhouse gases is to simulate a shorter period (perhaps 20 to 30 years)
with a constant amount of greenhouse gas (usually the equivalent of about
600 ppmv of carbon dioxide, which is approximately twice the pre-Industrial
Revolution level). Concentrations of this magnitude are expected to exist
in about the year 2050. These simulations, called simulations of an
equilibrium 2xCO2 climate, are much shorter to run on supercomputers and have
been done for the last 15 years by several research groups. The factor
not
accurately represented in equilibrium models is the difference in time scales of
components of the climate system. Oceans, soil moisture, and ice masses
are much slower to respond than the atmosphere, and the real climate system
is not expected to ever achieve an equilibrium state.
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