Temperature

The most notable features in the first graphs for December-January-February (DJF) temperature change (Figure 8) are the dominance of warming at high latitudes, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Both models agree that the Northern Hemisphere polar region warms substantially (more than 8^oC over wide areas) but the exact boundaries of the areas are different. Also, the GFHI simulation shows more intense warming at the North Pole and less difference in warming between land and water areas at high latitudes. The models disagree on the fate of warming over Antarctica. This is not surprising in view of the wide model disagreement over the pressure and circulation patterns over this part of the globe, as previously discussed. Both models report only weak warming in tropical areas.

Simulations of warming due to doubling of CO₂ for June-July-August (JJA) are given in Figure 9. Compared to the previous graph, the GFHI simulation shifts the maximum warming to the Antarctic ice margin in keeping with the shift to winter in the Southern Hemisphere. The UKHI model calculates less warming, although the site of maximum warming is similar to that of the GFHI map. Tropical regions again show little warming.

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